US spot Bitcoin ETFs gave again almost all of their 2025 positive aspects after hitting a cycle excessive in early October, with whole web property sliding to $120.68 billion as of Dec. 4, down $48.86 billion from the Oct. 6 peak.
The drawdown leaves the class primarily flat year-over-year, sitting simply $30 million beneath the $120.71 billion recorded on Dec. 16, 2024, emphasizing a “wipeout” 12 months wherein huge price-driven swings didn’t translate into sustained web progress for the ETF advanced.
The year-to-date move image diverged from the asset determine.
2025 web creations totaled $22.32 billion by Dec. 4, but the October-to-December worth drawdown in bitcoin minimize fund property again to the place they had been a 12 months in the past.
Since Oct. 6, cumulative web outflows totaled $2.49 billion, a small share of the $48.86 billion in AUM decline, with the residual transfer attributable to cost and unrealized revenue and loss.
That blend frames a 12 months wherein issuance demand continued, whereas BTC’s late-year retracement erased the asset’s positive aspects recorded into early October.
Second-quarter creations reached $12.80 billion, and third-quarter creations added $8.79 billion, whereas fourth-quarter creations turned marginally destructive by Dec. 4 at $0.20 billion in web redemptions.
The newest 30-day window confirmed $4.31 billion of web outflowsindicating that This autumn cooled after a powerful center a part of the 12 months.
Even after the fourth-quarter slowdown, cumulative web inflows since launch stood at $57.56 billion, stressing that the structural base of issued shares stays above the extent implied by worth alone.
The hole between precise AUM and a flow-only counterfactual since Oct. 6 illustrates the dynamic. Ranging from the $169.54 billion peak and mechanically including solely every day creations and redemptions yields a path that will have saved property close to that place to begin, whereas the noticed line fell with BTC’s drawdown.
The distinction between these two paths, proven within the “AUM vs flow-only” evaluation, quantifies the worth or PnL element that drove the decline.
By the identical logic, evaluating immediately’s AUM to the Dec. 16, 2024 anchor with cumulative 2025 inflows isolates the previous 12 months’s attribution, the place constructive flows had been offset by destructive worth marks, leaving property close to flat.
Traders targeted on fund well being will parse the unfold between flows and efficiency to evaluate resilience, liquidity, and potential provide overhang within the major market.
The constructive 2025 flows imply licensed individuals created shares web throughout the 12 months, so the product set didn’t endure broad redemption stress till late within the 12 months. Value, not redemptions, explains a lot of the AUM reset from the October excessive.
That issues for secondary market circumstances as a result of persistent outflows would level to completely different vendor steadiness sheet hundreds and secondary spreads than a price-led transfer with secure share counts.
The “nothingburger” year-over-year comparability is particular to the chosen dates, which middle on the most recent legitimate row within the dataset and the prior mid-December reference.
As of Dec. 4, whole property got here in solely $30 million beneath the Dec. 16, 2024, studying, a rounding-level change for a product suite that scaled above $120 billion. The interpretation, for readers monitoring structural adoption through creations, is {that a} flat YoY AUM print doesn’t suggest negligible demand.
It displays that the fourth-quarter worth decline countered earlier inflows. The datasets and charts included, spanning whole AUM, every day flows, and cumulative inflows since launch, align with this decomposition.
The intra-quarter shift is seen within the every day collection. Via the spring and summer time, creations clustered on sturdy worth days, then waned into the autumn. After Oct. 6, redemptions elevated, and the 30-day web move turned destructive in early December.
The magnitude remained modest relative to the entire, at $2.49 billion in web outflows over the interval, reinforcing the mechanical level that the AUM slide because the peak was primarily a operate of mark-to-market.
Beneath are the core figures referenced for readability.
| Metric | Worth | Date / Interval |
|---|---|---|
| Whole AUM | $120.68B | Dec. 4, 2025 |
| AUM peak | $169.54B | Oct. 6, 2025 |
| Change since peak | −$48.86B (−28.82%) | Oct. 6 to Dec. 4, 2025 |
| YoY AUM | $120.71B → $120.68B | Dec. 16, 2024 to Dec. 4, 2025 |
| 2025 YTD web flows | +$22.32B | Via Dec. 4, 2025 |
| Flows since Oct. 6 | −$2.49B | Oct. 6 to Dec. 4, 2025 |
| Cumulative web inflows since launch | +$57.56B | Via Dec. 4, 2025 |
| Newest 30-day web flows | −$4.31B | Via Dec. 4, 2025 |
| Quarterly flows | Q1 +$0.93B, Q2 +$12.80B, Q3 +$8.79B, This autumn up to now −$0.20B | 2025 |
For context and reproducibility, AUM corresponds to whole web property in USD, and flows correspond to the every day whole BTC influx.
The easy attribution of the AUM change from Oct. 6 to Dec. 4 equals web flows over the interval plus a worth or PnL time period. Utilizing that decomposition, the $48.86 billion decline approximates to $2.49 billion of web outflows and about $46.37 billion of worth or PnL.
The whole AUM chart exhibits the October crest and the following fade into December, the every day flows chart exhibits Q2 and Q3 power with This autumn softness, and the cumulative web inflows chart confirms that creations stay constructive since launch.
As framed, the headline takeaway is that 2025 introduced constructive issuance, whereas the October retracement in BTC capped the 12 months with property close to final December’s stage and nicely beneath the early October peak.
