Bitcoin surged previous $121,000 immediately, pushing in direction of its all-time excessive because the fourth quarter of 2025 kicked off with renewed momentum for Bitcoin.
The rally follows a robust September end, when Bitcoin gained about 5% to shut round $114,000 — a efficiency that considerably defied Bitcoin’s repute for seasonal weak spot.
Traditionally, when September has ended within the inexperienced, Bitcoin has usually gone on to submit outsized fourth-quarter positive factors. Information from Bitcoin Journal Professional reveals that in years corresponding to 2015, 2016, 2023, and 2024, fourth-quarter rallies averaged greater than 50%.
That seasonal development has already earned October the nickname “Uptober” amongst merchants. Since 2015, the month has produced common positive factors of 21.8%, with November including one other 10.8%.
If historical past rhymes, Bitcoin might be on observe to clear $150,000 earlier than the tip of the yr.
Bitcoin all-time excessive coming?
Based on Bitcoin Journal Professional information, Bitcoin has climbed practically 3% in 24 hours, advancing from round $117,500 to only over $121,000. During the last month, Bitcoin has notched a acquire of greater than 9%, rising from roughly $110,700.
On a year-to-date foundation, Bitcoin has delivered a return of 27%, underscoring its resilience regardless of ongoing volatility throughout broader markets.
With costs now lower than 3% away from the all-time excessive of over $124,000, it seems to be just like the stage is ready for a breakout if shopping for stress continues.
Bitcoin’s bullish momentum
This newest surge got here as conventional financial metrics reeled from the U.S. authorities’s shutdown at midnight after Congress didn’t go a funding invoice. With Wall Road below stress and financial information releases now on maintain, traders flocked to onerous belongings.
This yr’s positive factors additionally construct on April’s halving occasion, which reduce Bitcoin’s new provide in half — a milestone that has traditionally preceded important upward stress on value. On the similar time, key liquidity indicators are flashing inexperienced.
World M2 cash provide development, stablecoin issuance, and a rally in gold — which Bitcoin has usually tracked with a lag — all level to strengthening demand.
Citigroup analysts this week set a 12-month projection for Bitcoin at $181,000, citing strong inflows that would attain $7.5 billion by December.
“We’re extra constructive on Bitcoin in comparison with Ether, because it captures an outsized portion of incremental flows into crypto markets,” Citi analysts wrote, including {that a} friendlier regulatory setting might maintain momentum into 2026.
With Bitcoin already logging document highs in 2025, the fourth quarter now looms as a decisive stretch.
