Bitcoin choices have flipped the script with a full 180-degree shift from final yr’s uber bullish bets to a sharply bearish stance.
Since late final yr, merchants had been aggressively chasing bullish strikes by piling into name choices at strikes of $100,000, $120,000, and $140,000 on Deribit. Up till current weeks, the $140,000 name was the most well-liked on Deribit, with notional open curiosity (OI), or the greenback worth of the lively contracts, persistently above $2 billion.
Now, that’s modified. The $140,000 name’s open curiosity stands at $1.63 billion. In the meantime, the $85,000 put has taken the lead with $2.05 billion in open curiosity. Places at $80,000 and $90,000 strikes additionally now eclipse the $140,000 name.
Clearly, the sentiment has shifted decisively bearish, and never surprisingly so, as BTC’s value has collapsed over 25% to $91,000 since Oct. 8, CoinDesk knowledge exhibits.
Put choices give the purchaser the best, however not the duty, to promote the underlying asset at a predetermined value at a later date. A put purchaser is implicitly bearish available on the market, trying to revenue from or hedge in opposition to anticipated value slides within the underlying asset. A name purchaser is bullish.
The chart exhibits the distribution of open curiosity in BTC choices at numerous strike value ranges throughout expiries. Clearly, OI is getting stacked at decrease strike places, the so-called out-of-the-money put choices.
Whereas the variety of lively calls remains to be notably larger than places, the latter are buying and selling at a major premium (or skew), reflecting draw back fears.
“Choices replicate warning heading into year-end. Quick-dated places with strikes at $84K to $80K have seen the most important buying and selling volumes immediately. Entrance-end implied volatility sits round 50%, and the curve exhibits a heavy put skew (+5%-6.5%) for draw back safety,” Deribit Chief Business Officer Jean-David Pequignot mentioned in an e mail.
Choices exercise on decentralized trade Derive.xyz paints the same bearish image, with the 30-day skew falling to -5.3% from -2.9%, an indication of merchants more and more paying up for draw back insurance coverage, or put choices.
“Waiting for year-end, there’s now a sizeable focus of BTC places constructing across the December 26 expiry, notably on the $80K strike,” Dr. Sean Dawson, head of analysis at main onchain choices platform Derive.xyz, advised CoinDesk.
With ongoing considerations concerning the resilience of the U.S. job market and the likelihood of a December fee lower slipping to barely above a coin toss, there’s little or no within the macro backdrop giving merchants a motive to remain bullish into the shut of the yr, Dawson defined.
What subsequent?
Whereas the trail of least resistance seems to be on the draw back, the promoting might quickly run out of steam as technical indicators level to oversold situations and sentiment is at bearish extremes.
“With a Concern & Greed index round 15 and an RSI nearing 30 (oversold however not but excessive), whale wallets (>1,000 BTC) have elevated notably up to now week, hinting at smart-money accumulation at undervalued ranges,” Pequignot mentioned.
“General, draw back fears are justified within the quick time period and the trail of least resistance stays decrease for now, however excessive setups like this have rewarded the daring in crypto’s previous,” he added.
