Bitcoin could also be sliding into a brand new bear section except recent macro liquidity – significantly by spot ETFs – returns to the market, in accordance with CryptoQuant CEO Ki Younger Ju.
Bitcoin Bear Market Incoming?
Sharing a composite on-chain dashboard overlaid on the BTC value, Ju wrote on X: “Most Bitcoin on-chain indicators are bearish. With out macro liquidity, we enter a bear cycle.” The chart stacks ten CryptoQuant metrics behind the value in a red-to-green heatmap from 2021 to 2025, highlighting how regime shifts in prior cycles coincided with clusters of bearish readings.
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The symptoms within the panel embody the MVRV Z-scoreCryptoQuant P&L Index, the Bull-Bear Cycle Indicator, Inter-Alternate Move Pulse, Community Exercise Index, Stablecoin Liquidity, Bitcoin Demand Development, Dealer On-chain Revenue Margin, Dealer Realized Worth and a Technical Sign metric. When the bulk are bullish, the backdrop turns mild inexperienced; after they flip bearish, it shifts to purple. Within the newest part of the chart, as BTC has pulled again from its highs, purple as soon as once more dominates – the visible foundation for Ju’s warning.
For the following main transfer, Ju argues that on-chain knowledge is now subordinate to macro circumstances and ETF flows. Quoting his personal submit, he wrote: “It’s easy. In the event you assume macro will get higher subsequent 12 months, you purchase. In any other case, you promote. I’m not a macro professional, so discover macro bros. New ETF inflows are the important thing.”
That line pinpoints what he believes can “save” Bitcoin from a deeper drawdown: renewed demand from spot ETFs as a conduit for institutional capital. In earlier phases of the cycle, rising ETF inflows coincided with sturdy value appreciation; extra not too long ago, slowing or destructive flows have mirrored the lack of upward momentum.
Ju frames the present setting as one which calls for versatile state of affairs administration slightly than inflexible forecasts. “At this stage, it’s extra about being reactive than predictive. Set your eventualities and commerce accordingly,” he instructed followers. The composite chart is designed for precisely that objective, exhibiting how previous bull tops and bear markets aligned with persistent stretches of purple throughout revenue, valuation and liquidity metrics.
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Regardless of the bearish tilt, Ju doesn’t foresee a repeat of the 2022 collapse, when Bitcoin fell roughly 65% from peak to trough. He cites the behaviour of Michael Saylor led Technique as a stabilizing issue. “If Technique holds its 650K BTC this cycle (or sells solely slightly), we might not see one other -65% drawdown like in 2022,” he wrote. In his view, that provide remaining largely off the market reduces the chance of a violent deleveraging occasion.
Ju characterizes the present pullback as substantial however not excessive in historic context. “We’re about -25% from ATH now, and even when a bear cycle comes, the draw back would seemingly be smaller and look extra like a broad sideways vary,” he argued, suggesting that extended consolidation is extra seemingly than a single dramatic crash.
His message to long-term buyers is explicitly calming. “Lengthy-term holders ought to keep away from panic promoting,” he suggested. Whereas cyclical on-chain indicators flash purple, he insists the structural backdrop has improved: “Bitcoin has extra liquidity channels now, so the long-term outlook is clearly sturdy, imo.” These channels embody ETFs and a deeper institutional market construction than in prior cycles.
At press time, Bitcoin traded at $92,494.
Featured picture created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
