Bitcoin is sitting on its first true make-or-break assist of the cycle, and the market is now in what crypto analyst Dom (@traderview2) calls a “fork within the highway.” His message is direct: if Bitcoin can’t stabilize and reclaim key ranges rapidly, the construction that has outlined this whole run breaks for the primary time — and he’s positioning for draw back.
“That is the final probability for Bitcoin to carry this degree and to push increased,” he stated in a reside evaluation stream on October 29. “If Bitcoin doesn’t see its footing right here over the subsequent week or two, I feel that that is going to interrupt down. And I feel that we’re going to see the mid to low $90,000s once more.”
Closing Stand For Bitcoin’s Staircase Rally
Dom’s base case is just not a traditional crypto winter. He doesn’t anticipate an 80% wipeout. As a substitute, he’s warning that the subsequent few days will determine if Bitcoin can defend the “staircase” construction that has held all cycle. If that breaks, he expects a managed however persistent retrace — not a collapse, however not continuation both.
“I don’t suppose that we’re going right into a yr and a half bear market like we all the time have,” he stated. “These are a factor of the previous… except the world goes right into a horrible recession like Nice Melancholy kind factor.”
The important thing line he’s looking ahead to Bitcoin is roughly the $111,000–$114,000 area, which he referenced within the context of reclaimed resistance and VWAP ranges. “If it doesn’t regain that in a fast timeframe, I feel we have to prepare for a bigger breakdown and that’s going to be sub $100K,” he stated. His first goal on breakdown is close to $98,500, which traces up with what he known as the 12-month rolling VWAP — “our bull market band this whole cycle.”
Under that, he’s whether or not patrons step in aggressively or by no means. That response, he says, will determine if $95,000 is a neighborhood wipeout and reset, or the beginning of one thing worse.
The rationale he considers this second “do or die” is that, not like earlier legs within the cycle, Bitcoin is now not bouncing immediately from assist. All through the advance, Dom says, Bitcoin adopted a single clear sample: break a significant resistance, retest it as soon as, and explode increased. “Any time that we cleared resistance, we held that as assist,” he stated. “It’s been an ideal sample all through the complete cycle.”
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That habits has now modified. After the October 10 liquidation occasion and the transient power across the Fed choice and China headlinesBitcoin stalled. It broke above resistance, then simply sat there for “4 or 5 months,” did not develop, and is now dropping momentum at the very same degree patrons beforehand defended with urgency.
“Any person doesn’t imagine that it is a low cost,” he stated. “We’ve had so many bounces on the identical value and patrons simply aren’t . What’s going to get them ? Logically decrease costs.”
That is traditional public sale principle for him. In robust uptrends, the primary retest of a key degree is purchased immediately as a result of members see it as low-cost. Now, he says, order circulate exhibits hesitation, not urgency. That’s how tops really kind in crypto: not one dramatic candle, however patrons refusing to defend the identical degree for the fifth time.
He additionally pointed on to shallow liquidity on main spot books. On Coinbase, he stated, “these order books are empty… no one’s saving us down right here.” He described solely skinny passive bid curiosity close to $100,000 — “that’s solely 170 Bitcoin. That’s actually not a lot” — and heavy energetic promote stress on Binance. “Persons are actively market promoting… and we don’t have anybody on the opposite aspect to soak up that stress.” His conclusion: that is precisely the setup that precedes quick air-moves decrease if a key degree breaks.
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That fragility is just not hypothetical. Dom says the October 10 crash already proved how dependent crypto nonetheless is on a handful of market makers. “We mainly slid by way of an empty order e-book,” he stated. “It proves how fragile crypto actually is… If their threat techniques say, ‘Hey, we’re not going to cite this,’ markets are going to crash like they did.”
No 80% Crash This Time
Nonetheless, Dom is just not within the “cycle is over eternally” camp. He thinks the market has modified structurally and that almost all merchants are nonetheless utilizing a 2021 psychological mannequin in a 2025 market.
He argues Bitcoin is now an institutional instrument, not a purely speculative retail instrument. “This proper right here has been a really regular staircasing type of development,” he stated. “The distinction… is that this was actually pushed due to establishments. I feel the establishments had been the primary driver behind this cycle… ETFs launched and we’ve type of simply staircased our manner up.”
That sluggish, managed advance is why he rejects the concept Bitcoin will repeat the traditional -80% drawdown after topping. He calls the brand new circulate “parked cash” — capital from ETFs, company treasuriesallocators, and “monetary advisors, 401k cash,” that’s not actively panic-selling each 5% transfer. “They’re not calling you each different day and saying, ‘Oh, you recognize, it’s down 5%. Let’s promote it,’” he stated.
He additionally identified that this cycle barely doubled the previous all-time excessive as an alternative of going vertical, and even printed new highs earlier than the halving. In his view, if the upside blow-off was muted and institutional, the draw back is prone to be muted and institutional.
At press time, BTC traded at $110,280.
Featured picture created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
